Results & Evidence

What can the Capital in the Wild investigation actually demonstrate?

A trading system can have several kinds of result: a coherent hypothesis, a tested simulation, a completed software component, a successful operational run, an independently documented live trade or a realised financial outcome. These must not be presented as equivalent.

Research evidence

Tests should explain the data period, assumptions, costs, contract-roll treatment, possible selection bias and limits of inference. A backtest can help evaluate a hypothesis but cannot establish future profitability.

Engineering evidence

Operational tests can show that a component completes a task, checks its inputs and produces auditable outputs. That establishes a particular technical capability, not that the strategy is profitable.

Live financial results

Where a real, representative and properly evidenced track record is eventually published, it should disclose the basis of calculation, relevant costs, capital exposure, drawdowns and its time period. No such verified figures were present in the supplied website content.

We do not substitute simulated graphs for live performance or imply returns that have not been documented.

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